FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Thursday, August 26, 1999

Drought Foreshadows Larger Water Threat

By Sandra Postel

This year, much of the eastern United States is suffering through the third worst drought of the century. If these conditions persist into the fall and winter, scientists say it could surpass in severity the devastating droughts of 1929 and 1966.

Authorities in seven states and the District of Columbia have issued drought advisories, warnings, or emergencies. Throughout the mid-Atlantic region, more than three-quarters of all streams and rivers, (including the Delaware, Susquehanna, and Potomac), have hit record or near-record low flows. Rising salinity and low oxygen levels have caused massive fish kills, including one numbering 200,000 in Maryland waterways. In late July, a salt front moving up the Hudson River was just 6 miles downstream of the water supply intake for the city of Poughkeepsie, New York.

In the worst-hit areas, wells have run dry, causing owners to drill deeper in a frantic search for water. Corn crops have withered under searing heat and rainless skies. Maryland has had the driest growing season since record-keeping began a century ago.

At the moment, stricken regions can take solace in the knowledge that droughts eventually come to an end. But a much larger, long-term water threat is going virtually unnoticed even as it builds to staggering proportions: Water supplies are running short in several of the world's major food-producing regions, even as global food needs continue to climb.

Water tables are falling from the overpumping of groundwater in the breadbaskets and rice bowls of central and northern China, northwest India, parts of Pakistan, much of the United States, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Arabian Peninsula. Farmers in these regions are pumping groundwater faster than nature is replenishing it. Just as a bank account dwindles if withdrawals routinely exceed deposits, so will an underground water reserve decline if extractions exceed replenishment.

During the last three decades, as farmers sunk millions of wells, the depletion of underground aquifers has spread from isolated pockets of the agricultural landscape to large portions of irrigated land. In India, a government-commissioned study found that "overexploitation of ground water resources is widespread across the country." As much as a quarter of India's grain production could be at risk as a result of ground water depletion.

Likewise, overpumping is widespread in China's north-central plain, which produces some 40 percent of the nation's grain. Across a wide area, water tables have been dropping 1 to 1.5 meters a year, even as the nation's water demands continue to climb.

In the United States, one-fifth of all irrigated land gets water from a vast underground reserve known as the Ogallala. One of the planet's greatest aquifers, it spans portions of eight states, from South Dakota in the north to Texas in the south. In its southern reaches, the Ogallala gets very little replenishment from rainfall and decades of heavy pumping have taken a toll. The volume of water depleted to date is equal to the annual flow of 18 Colorado Rivers.

All told, the world's farmers are racking up an annual water deficit of some 160 billion cubic meters-the amount used to produce nearly 10 percent of the world's grain. The overpumping of groundwater cannot continue indefinitely. Eventually, the wells run dry, or it becomes too expensive to pump from greater depths.

Even if groundwater depletion was the only water problem in our farming regions, we would have ample cause for concern; but it is not. Many major rivers now run dry for large portions of the year-including the Yellow in China, the Indus in Pakistan, the Ganges in South Asia, and the Colorado in the American Southwest. Worldwide, one in five acres of irrigated land is damaged by a buildup of salt that is slowly sapping the soil's fertility. Cities and farms now compete for scarce water, as do neighboring countries that depend on the same river.

Meanwhile, populations continue to grow fastest in some of the world's most water-short regions. The number of people living in water-stressed countries is projected to climb from 470 million to 3 billion by 2025. With this number of people living in countries lacking enough water to be food self-sufficient, competition for grain imports will increase. Whether the United States, Europe, and other exporters will produce sufficient surpluses to meet those import demands is only half the issue. The other half is whether the exports will be offered at a price that poor, food-importing nations-especially those in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa-can afford.

Hanging over these worsening water problems is the prospect of climate change. One likely effect of higher temperatures and more rapid melting of winter snowpacks is a reduction in available water supplies during the summer months, when farms and cities need water most. In addition, for some period of time, our reservoirs and water systems will be poorly matched to altered rainfall and river flow patterns(creating additional vulnerabilities in our water and food systems.

Water scarcity is now the single biggest threat to global food production. Only by taking action now to conserve the water supplies in our major crop-producing regions can we secure enough water to satisfy future food needs.

SANDRA POSTEL is author of Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last? (W.W. Norton, 1999). She directs the Global Water Policy Project in Amherst, Massachusetts, and is a Senior Fellow of Worldwatch Institute.

The current issue of World Watch magazine contains an article by Sandra Postel on water shortages that is available as a free PDF file.

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT:

Worldwatch Institute
1776 Massachusetts Ave NW
Washington, DC 20036
telephone: 202 452-1999
fax: 202 296-7365

e-mail worldwatch@worldwatch.org
or visit our website www.worldwatch.org

Updates March 2002

Drought Warnings for the Eastern United States

 Drought Monitor Update
12 March 2002
http://enso.unl.edu/monitor/monitor.html

National Drought Summary -- March 12, 2002

The East: Moderate precipitation fell on parts of upstate New York and northern New England while light amounts fell on the Northeast, southern Appalachians, central North Carolina, the Georgia and South Carolina Piedmont, and the western slopes and foothills of the Appalachians. Little or none fell elsewhere. As a result, dryness and drought remained unchanged in the Northeast, and expanded or intensified in parts of the mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and the central and southern Appalachians. D3 conditions were extended to cover central North Carolina, the Virginia Blue Ridge and Northern Neck, eastern West Virginia, and the entire Delmarva Peninsula while D0 to D2 conditions made new forays into parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, north Georgia, Alabama, and northern Florida. In addition, the approach of the growing season and above-normal temperatures prompted the removal of the (W) designation from the mid-Atlantic, central Appalachians, and Carolinas. Precipitation totals for the last 30 days were 2 to 4 inches below normal from southern Virginia and central Kentucky southward through western South Carolina, northern Georgia, and Alabama while 90-day totals 4 to 8 inches below normal were measured in southern New England, the lower Northeast, the mid-Atlantic, and portions of central South Carolina, southwestern Georgia, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Relative to historic data from the National Climatic Data Center, September 2001 through February 2002 was the driest of any 6-month period in 107 years of records for the states of Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, and Virginia.

The Plains and Midwest: Light to moderate precipitation led to some D0 reduction in central Minnesota and some adjacent areas, but little or no precipitation was observed through most of the Plains, except in some parts of east-central sections and the northern tier. Consequently, D0 expanded eastward to cover central Texas and central Nebraska, and D1 or D2 conditions were introduced in the southern Rio Grande Valley, parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent Kansas, and portions of eastern Wyoming and adjacent areas. During the last 30 days, less than 25% of normal precipitation fell on central and southeastern South Dakota, southwestern Kansas, the western halves of Oklahoma and Texas, southeastern Colorado, and eastern New Mexico. The National Interagency Fire Center highlighted areas from southern South Dakota southward through central Texas and the southern High Plains as having “high” or “very high” fire danger on March 12, with some “extreme” fire danger identified in parts of eastern New Mexico and the Big Bend.

The West: Beneficial precipitation led to a continued gradual reduction of drought conditions in the northern and western tiers of the region while dryness intensified in the southern half of this region. Most notably, much of northeast Oregon and interior western Idaho improved to D0(W), and some of the western fringes of D1(W) to D3 conditions in western Montana and northwestern Wyoming also improved by a category.

For the most part, sufficient snowpack exists across northern and western parts of the region to allow for adequate water supplies and streamflows during the forthcoming spring and summer months, but some of these areas remain entrenched in long-term precipitation deficits. Two- to three-year totals through February 2002 were among the lowest in 107 years of record in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho despite the current presence of near- or above-normal snow water content. Farther south, longer-term conditions are better, but autumn and winter warmth and dryness has kept mountain snowpack well below normal and raised some concern about conditions during the forthcoming spring and summer, though water supplies should be adequate in most places.

Rapidly increasing fire danger and continued well-below-normal precipitation led to D1(F) expansion through much of Arizona, southern Nevada, and southeastern California while D2 and D2(W) conditions pushed into much of central and southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, and southern Utah. Currently, local and national managers are particularly concerned about fire danger for the next couple of weeks and months in New Mexico, Arizona, and adjacent areas where moisture in potential wildfire fuel (trees, shrubs, grasses, etc.) is exceptionally low.

Much farther north, a warm, dry autumn and winter led to the introduction of D0 into interior sections of the southeastern quarter of Alaska. Snowpack in this region on March 1 was between 50% and 70% of normal, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and much of the valleys recorded less than half of normal October - February precipitation, according to the River Forecast Centers.

Hawaii and Puerto Rico: D1 drought continued in western Molokai and D0 dryness remained in southern Puerto Rico. Both areas were somewhat drier than normal again last week.

Looking Ahead: Rainfall March 12 - 13 in the East should prove beneficial, but not nearly sufficient for any significant relief in most places. The heaviest rains are likely in parts of the Carolinas and adjacent Georgia.

Forecast conditions that may affect areas of dryness and drought during March 14 - 18 include beneficial precipitation (1-2 inches) from central Maine westward through northeastern New York, but near- or below-normal totals in other dry areas of the East. Little or none is forecast for much of the Carolinas, Georgia, central Florida, and southeastern Alabama. The entire East Coast should average warmer than normal this period. Farther west, 5-day totals of 1-2 inches are expected in a swath from the eastern parts of South Dakota and Nebraska eastward to the Mississippi River. Light to moderate amounts are anticipated near this areas, and in parts of the central High Plains and Rockies, the northern Intermountain West, Utah, and western Nevada. Farther south and east, little or no precipitation should fall on the southern, southern parts of the Four Corners states, and the desert Southwest. Above-normal temperatures are expected to accompany this dryness in Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico.

For the ensuing 5 days (March 19 - 23), the odds favor heavier than normal precipitation from New York southward to southern Alabama and Georgia. Above-normal totals also appear likely in the desert Southwest. Meanwhile, dryness is favored in northern sections of the High Plains and Rockies, the Northwest, the southern High Plains, and parts of Texas. Temperatures should average above normal from the Carolinas and eastern Tennessee southward through Florida while cool conditions are favored for the upper Midwest, the central and northern Plains, and from the Rockies westward to the West Coast.

Author: Author: Rich Tinker, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA

And more below...

N.H. declares drought emergency
http://www.fosters.com/news2002a/mar02/13/nh0313q.htm

State to declare drought emergency
http://www.citizen.com/news2002/March/13/con0313bb.htm

Low water level at Laurel Reservoir reveals lost town
http://www.ctnow.com/news/local/fc/scn-sa-reservoir1mar13.story?coll=hc%2Dheadlines%2D fc

Drought emergency curbs seen for central Maryland
http://www.sunspot.net/news/local/bal-md.water13mar13.story?coll=bal%2Dlocal%2Dheadlin es

Water warning issued
http://www.telegram.com/news/page_one/drought.html

Maine eligible for federal disaster aid to offset drought-related farm losses
http://www.fosters.com/news2002a/mar02/13/me0313f.htm

Forum explores water woes
http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1002,53%257E460867,00.html

Maine proposes lowering Presumpscot to boost level of drought-stricken Sebago
http://www.fosters.com/news2002a/mar02/13/me0313a.htm